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A seismic shock in Quebec politics with Quebec Premier François Legault announcing his resignation. In office since 2018, he had also recently taken on the role of minister responsible for the Abitibi-Témiscamingue region. He has stated that he will remain in office until his successor is appointed by the party, likely through a leadership race, the details of which should be finalized in the coming days. In the meantime, the government continues to operate while ministers are asked continue managing their respective portfolios.

This decision comes amid a major decline in voting intentions for the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ). A poll published on January 13 indicates that the CAQ is now in last place, tied with Québec solidaire (QS), with 11% of voting intentions.[1] This sharp decline contrasts sharply with the party’s near-hegemonic electoral dominance in the last two general elections, underscoring the extent of the political setback suffered by the CAQ.

By announcing his resignation, François Legault inevitably weakens the political legitimacy of the power he still formally holds. Although he will remain in office until his successor is appointed, his announced withdrawal from political life now places him in a transitional position, where legal authority remains, but political and symbolic authority is eroding. The premier thus becomes a head of government on borrowed time, holding institutional powers but deprived of the full political capacity to shape the future.

Questions for the Future of the CAQ

At this stage, this announcement raises more questions than answers. As the founder of the CAQ, François Legault was seen by many as the glue that held the party together. To reiterate, the CAQ is a coalition bringing together both strong federalists and deeply nationalist figures, whose relationship with Canada remains ambiguous at times.

François Legault’s departure thus opens the door to a possible internal power struggle within the party, as these different factions could seek to assert themselves in the leadership race. In the absence of a clear unifying figure, the CAQ could see its ideological divisions come to light, further weakening a party that is already severely eroded in the eyes of public opinion.

Reshaping the Political Landscape: Opportunities and Risks

The CAQ remains a major political force for now, with 79 members of parliament, followed by the Quebec Liberal Party (QLP) with 18 elected representatives, QS with 11 members of parliament, and the Parti Québécois (PQ) with 6 members of parliament. In addition, there are 10 independent members, all former CAQ members who were expelled from the party or voluntarily left its ranks. Some, notably Christian Dubé and Lionel Carmant, were among the most influential members of the party.

Nevertheless, the premier’s resignation could accelerate a realignment of the partisan balance of power. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s party benefited greatly from the CAQ’s decline, managing to win back a substantial portion of the electorate dissatisfied with the Legault government. However, a new face at the head of the CAQ would be more likely than François Legault, whose unfavourable rating recently reached 75%[2], to court the PQ electorate, particularly the nationalist fringe, which is reluctant to support the independence option.

For the Quebec Liberal Party, the challenge will be to reposition itself as a force for stability and governance. However, the QLP must also go through its own leadership race, which limits its ability to present itself, in the short term, as an alternative ready to govern.

The National Question as a Backdrop

This political sequence raises a more fundamental question about the future of the “third way” embodied by the CAQ since 2018. François Legault’s departure raises the question of the long-term viability of a political project aimed at moving beyond the traditional sovereignist-federalist divide. Will we see this attempt to overtake continue, or rather a (re)consolidation of the traditional divide that has structured Quebec politics for several decades?

The Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ) could also come out on top, now in third place in voting intentions and likely to absorb part of the CAQ electorate in disarray. The PCQ could thus embody this third way, further to the right, in line with a broader trend observed in several Western democracies, where conservative parties are gaining ground.

A New Government on the Horizon

In the coming months, Quebec will undergo a rapid political transition. A new premier will take the reins of a CAQ government which, without strong leadership capable of reversing the trend, risks being replaced by another party next October.  On the other hand, if the CAQ manages to renew itself around unifying leadership, the outcome becomes much more unpredictable. It could then regain some of the ground it has lost and reshuffle the deck for all opposition parties.

The year 2026 promises to be particularly exciting for fans of Quebec politics.

By Pascal Deslauriers, Public Relations Advisor and Political Analyst

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