News

Can this new Council of Ministers change the game for the Coalition Avenir Québec? At first glance, Christine Fréchette has rather successfully pulled off what she herself described as a “balancing act” by trying to satisfy her own allies, those of her rival, while also seeking to project an image of fresh blood. Her first Council of Ministers does not ring in a changing of the guard within the CAQ, but rather signals a premier who is uniting her troops and relaunching a team that has become somewhat worn out after nearly two terms governing Quebec.

The clearest signal is that of renewal, with five new faces who, until now, had not had access to the ministerial benches. They are Catherine Blouin (Bonaventure), Daniel Bernard (Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue), Kariane Bourassa (Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré), Karine Boivin-Roy (Anjou–Louis-Riel), and Mathieu Lévesque (Chapeleau). Interestingly, the first two come from regions that François Legault had left out during his previous cabinet shuffle, namely Gaspésie and Abitibi-Témiscamingue. As for Karine Boivin-Roy, she joins her colleague Chantal Rouleau in the Council of Ministers, the two women being the CAQ’s only members of the National Assembly on the Island of Montreal.

Between timid rupture and balance

By contrast, some figures associated with the Legault era are excluded from the Council of Ministers. Geneviève Guilbault, who announced that she would not be seeking reelection in the fall, loses her position, as does her colleague Jonatan Julien. Benoît Charrette takes his place and inherits Transportation and, with it, the third link file. Despite announcing her departure from political life, Sonia LeBel retains Education, like other experienced figures Christine Fréchette has chosen to keep in place. Éric Girard therefore remains at Finance, Sonia Bélanger at Health, and France-Élaine Duranceau at the Treasury Board.

The man who was seen as François Legault’s protégé, Simon Jolin-Barrette, keeps his post at the Justice Department, but loses two important roles, namely responsibility for Canadian Relations and his position as parliamentary leader.

Bernard Drainville is therefore getting what he had explicitly asked Christine Fréchette for after his defeat, namely the Ministry of Economy, Innovation and Energy. The man who had rushed to leave the room after Christine Fréchette’s victory last April 12 now finds himself at the head of one of the government’s key ministries, in a move that appears to be an olive branch to his camp and a way of preventing the divisions from the leadership race from taking root over the long term.

François Bonnardel’s return to the Council of Ministers is also significant. A veteran of Quebec politics, elected since 2007, he returns to office after having been excluded for several months in the wake of the SAAQclic scandal. Bonnardel therefore takes Jean-François Roberge’s place at Immigration, while Roberge still retains the French Language and Secularism. Lionel Carmant also returns to the Council of Ministers after slamming the door last October, citing a family conflict related to the adoption of Bill 2 on physician compensation.

Ian Lafrenière, in addition to retaining his positions as Minister responsible for Internal Security and Minister responsible for Relations with First Nations and Inuit, has also been appointed Deputy Premier of Quebec.

Despite Christine Fréchette’s clear desire to achieve parity, that objective is not met, with a cabinet made up of 19 men and 12 women.

Léger poll: the CAQ slightly lifts its head

This cabinet shuffle comes as a new poll conducted by the Léger firm gives the CAQ a bit of breathing room. Without going so far as to speak of a “Fréchette effect,” Christine Fréchette appears to be giving her party a slight rebound of four percentage points.

By contrast, Charles Milliard’s Liberal Party already seems to be losing some of its momentum. The man whom many criticized for not taking clear positions on the issues of the day over the past few months has finally done so, after several hesitations and while provoking the ire of his anglophone caucus, particularly around Bill 96 and the use of the notwithstanding clause. The Liberal leader sees his party drop by five points in voting intentions, mainly to the benefit of Ms. Fréchette.

Quebecois, particularly francophones, still appear numerous in trusting Paul St-Pierre-Plamondon to take the reins of the Quebec government, as he is still managing to remain above 30 percent in voting intentions. If he were to abandon the idea of holding a referendum on Quebec sovereignty, his support would rise to 39 percent, which would guarantee him an overwhelming majority in the National Assembly. That demonstrates one thing. The main obstacle to support for the Parti Québécois does not appear to be Paul St-Pierre-Plamondon himself, but rather the prospect of a referendum. In a sense, that is encouraging data for the PQ leader, who has been leading the polls for more than two years and still retains some room to maneuver in trying to rally more Quebecois to his sovereigntist project.

A cabinet shuffle with necessarily limited effects

In this context, Christine Fréchette’s cabinet shuffle changes the government’s image far more than it truly transforms the political balance of power. With the current parliamentary calendar, only two months of work remain before the next election. This reshuffle sends several political signals, but it is hard to believe that it can deeply change the CAQ’s trajectory in such a short period of time. Between a tight parliamentary agenda and a significant deficit in the polls, the government’s room for maneuver appears very narrow. Turning things around therefore amounts to a highly ambitious gamble.

The analysis of our expert : Pascal Deslauriers, Principal Advisor